Is Renewable Energy Really Overtaking Fossil Fuels?

According to a lot of the commentary around the race to combat climate change, renewable energy is poised to become the world’s leading power source next year.

This means potentially surpassing coal and marking a historic shift. The progress, whilst promising, begs the question: Is it happening fast enough to address the climate crisis?

And more importantly, will it be enough to fully replace fossil fuels, or is the transition fraught with hurdles that could slow global progress?

The Promise

Renewable energy, particularly wind and solar power, has experienced unprecedented growth in recent years. In fact, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that 90% of new electricity generation between 2022 and 2027 will come from renewable sources. The world’s largest offshore wind farm, Hornsea 2, became operational in 2023, providing clean power to 1.4 million homes annually ​(World Economic Forum). This project is symbolic of the broader shift as more countries accelerate their commitments to a green energy future.

This momentum is further reinforced by international pledges, such as the global coalition of over 120 countries that aims to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030​ (Home of Energy News). Such initiatives reflect a collective realisation that renewables are no longer just a supplemental energy source; they are central to the future of global power.

The Roadblocks

Despite this progress, the transition from fossil fuels remains complicated. Currently, the world’s energy systems are still deeply rooted in fossil fuels, with coal, oil, and natural gas making up 81% of global energy consumption, the same proportion as 30 years ago​. This stubborn reliance poses a significant challenge to meeting the 1.5°C global warming target set by the Paris Agreement. Fossil fuel industries, supported by decades of infrastructure and investment, are not easy to dismantle overnight.

Furthermore, while renewable energy technology is advancing, it has yet to fully address the issue of intermittency. Solar and wind, the most abundant forms of renewable energy, are dependent on weather conditions, which can lead to gaps in energy supply. Energy storage solutions, like large-scale batteries, are making strides but have not yet reached the scale required to stabilise grids entirely reliant on renewables.

The Speed

Another key issue is whether the pace of renewable adoption is fast enough. According to the IEA, renewable energy’s growth must not only outpace fossil fuel expansion but also offset the ongoing emissions from existing fossil fuel infrastructure. Whilst wind and solar power are now cheaper than coal in many regions, fossil fuels continue to benefit from subsidies and entrenched political interests, especially in major economies like China and India, which remain significant coal consumers.

A crucial consideration is that even as renewables rise, global energy demand continues to grow, particularly in developing nations. This growing demand risks outpacing the installation of new renewable infrastructure, especially if fossil fuel subsidies remain in place, perpetuating reliance on carbon-intensive energy sources.